I'm not sure if we can say that definitively right now but the violence in recent days between the Lebanese army and the Fatah al-Islam group in and around Palestinian refugee camps is really worrying. The BBC has followed the story closely and has sought to provide some useful background information. What seems certain is that without outside assistance Lebanon may be heading towards another summer of violence.

Sadly this is not a major surprise as Lebanon is an integral part of the region that falls under NEASFram - precisely because things there are complicated, it is a key pivot in the plan.